What's changed since Covid?

Last week I had a lovely time talking with a local PTO about college admission. I was specifically asked to talk about how the admission process has changed since Covid. That’s a great question, and I talked about three changes that I’ve seen in my own small practice over the past few years. From everything I’ve read about nationwide trends, my experience seems to be pretty typical of admission for most people.

So what’s different?

1. I talk about testing a lot less.

To be clear: All of my clients have taken at lease one SAT (usually administered at school during the school day). Some take it more than once, and some have also taken the ACT. Most of them are choosing to submit test scores in their applications. Testing has not disappeared.

And around 4% of colleges require test scores—MIT is a notable example. So please carefully check the policies of any school you’re thinking of applying to. Most schools who are going to announce any changes to their testing policy will do so this summer, so check again in the fall.

But many schools that relaxed their testing requirements for Covid have decided to stay permanently test optional, and some are going test blind and not looking at test scores even if you have them—the University of California system is a notable example of this trend.

Testing is still a part of the application, it’s just not the stressor it was a few years ago. Almost everyone takes the test once or twice, accepts their scores for what they are, and then moves on. It’s been two years since I’ve had any kind of “testing strategy” conversation. Once or twice I’ve spent a few minutes talking with a client about whether I recommend they re-test. Once or twice I’ve chatted about the pros and cons of test prep. I’ve had a single conversation this year about whether a test scores is “good,” or “good enough.” And a quick email about whether or not to report scores. That’s it. Probably a 90% decrease in time spent thinking about, talking about, and writing about standardized tests.

(The most common test-related question I’ve had so far this spring is about whether certain colleges prefer the SAT or ACT. The students admit that colleges say that they don’t have a preference, but wonder if they really do have a preference. They do not have a preference. Colleges are very used to both ACT and SAT scores.)

In the big picture, I think this de-emphasis on testing is a really great thing. Of all the things you do to make a stronger college application, standardized tests have the shortest longevity. Better grades in high school, a stronger essay, more connection with your community, more activity out in the world—all of these things are a better use of your time in the long run than getting high SAT/ACT scores. So I’m fine with this development, especially for otherwise bright and promising students who just don’t do as well at timed, high-pressure, multiple-choice exams.

I also acknowledge that the de-emphasis on testing can be frustrating for students who had hoped to make their test scores the centerpiece of their application. You can still report your scores, of course. And really high scores are never going to be a hindrance to your application. But students should be a lot less confident on their acceptance to colleges based solely on high test scores than they could a few years ago—and they shouldn’t have been over-confident a few years ago.

2. The whole process has moved up by about two months.

My first few years doing this, December was really busy for me. Clients were finishing up applications for Regular Decision deadlines in early January. There were lots of questions, lots of last-minute changes to their college list, and quite a bit of last-minute edits to essays. Then I would have little to do in January and February, wondering if I would even be able to continue doing this work since nobody was inquiring about my services. But a little later, mostly in the week before Spring Break and the week after, calls and emails would start coming in, and I had close to a full roster by May.

The past two years, that whole cycle has been accelerated by two months. October has been really stressful, and applications have been largely finished by November 1. Almost everyone I work with has applied early—whether through Early Decision, Early Action, or just turning a regular application in early—to at least one school. Many, though not all, had at least one acceptance by mid-December and didn’t submit any more applications. Even the ones who sent January applications were still pretty much done early, though, since they had already finished things up for a November deadline. December has been pleasantly slow.

Just as things are wrapping up a few months earlier than before, things are beginning earlier. I almost always only begin working with students in their junior year, and March and April used to be when I brought most people on board. Now, I’m getting calls and emails in the first half of 11th grade. I had about half of my current juniors by the end of December, and by Spring Break this year I was turning people away because I have all the clients I need. January and February are no longer quiet, but now really busy.

I don’t know to what extent this earlier schedule is a national trend. It could easily be that I’m getting client inquiries earlier just because I’ve been doing this a bit longer and am more established. But I know that early applications are definitely on the rise, so I suspect that the timing shift is bigger than just my small sample.

3. There’s no “normal” number of applications any more.

I used to tell students that ideally they will be applying to four to eight schools, and that most apply to eight to twelve. I still talk about the four-to-eight goal, but there’s no longer a “normal” or “average” number of applications for my students.

As I said, the past two years have seen more students applying to a few schools early, getting accepted, and being finished. Although the number of clients who apply to only one college is still pretty small, it’s double what it used to be. And the number of clients who apply to four or fewer schools is also a lot higher. So, fewer applications…

…except the students who don’t apply early, or don’t get accepted early, are typically applying to more schools. If there’s not early success, then they get nervous and feel the need to send out more applications, just in case. I’ve had a lot of clients in the past two years apply to more than 15 colleges overall. Last year someone applied to 23. So students are applying to fewer schools or to more schools, but not as many students are applying to the middle of range of four to 12.

Those are the major changes I’ve seen in the past few years. And they seem to be normal. It’s a mess out there, and I haven’t got a lot of hope in the near-to-mid-future that it will get better.

What advice do I have for parents and students considering these changes?

Consider early 11th grade as the ideal time to begin thinking seriously about college admission. I still don’t encourage 9th or 10th graders to get too involved, because there’s still so much time for so much to change. But I know lots of parents my age didn’t begin their own college admission process until 12th grade, and that’s just not nearly as feasible as it used to be.

Think of November 1 as your deadline, not January 1. Some of the large public universities have earlier deadlines, especially if you want financial aid or campus housing. If you’re in a position to consider Early Decision, then consider it seriously. While I used to have “will you apply ED to any of the schools on your list?” conversations, now I mostly have “to which school on your list will you apply ED?” conversations.

Building a balanced list of colleges is incredibly important. I want all my clients, no matter how impressive their transcript and resume, to apply to one or two schools they are very confident they’ll be accepted to. I don’t discourage anyone from applying to as many “highly rejective” colleges as they want, but we work hard to have realistic expectations, and I want those Dream School conversations to happen after the conversations about confident-in-acceptance schools.

Remember that the best way to prepare for college is to be a good high school student. It’s not about “tips and tricks” or strategy. It’s not about secret formulas or inside information. It’s about being the best version of you possible, and then clearly communicating who you are. And as I say as often as possible: when you see unhappy adults, they’re never unhappy because they didn’t get into their top-choice college twenty years ago. College is important, but getting into your Dream School just isn’t that important in the grand scheme. You’re going to be fine.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this post, here are three easy things you can do:

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   Four things juniors should do now, before the end of the year

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Creating a balanced college list, for everyone

When we talk about applying to colleges, we typically use three categories: Target, Reach, and Safety. A Target school is a school that you are pretty sure you can be accepted to. A Reach school is a college you’re not likely to be accepted to. And a Safety is one where you are quite sure you’ll be accepted—it’s a safe bet. The standard thinking is that it’s fine to apply to Reach schools, but you should focus on Target schools. And you should make sure you apply to a Safety or two, just in case.

According to this three-category framework, how do you know if a particular college is a Reach, Target, or Safety? One common way to determine is to use standardized test scores. If your SAT (or ACT) scores fall in the published mid-range of a college, then it’s a Target. If you’re in their top 25%, then it’s a Safety. Bottom 25% means it’s a Reach. Another way is to use the same method, but with your GPA. And one of the most popular ways is to use the Scattergram function in Naviance, which shows you how many people from your school got accepted to a college charting their test scores and GPA. There are also more anecdotal ways of determining, like talking to friends and family members who were accepted (or not) to the college, or extrapolating from a comment made by an admissions representative. There’s also the infamous “chance me” threads on forums like College Confidential. Knowing if a college is a Safety, Reach, or Target isn’t an exact science; you don’t really know until you apply and are accepted or denied. But it’s an exercise many students go through to put together a balanced college list.

One thing I’ve learned over the years working with students on admission is that, surprisingly, a less individualized approach is probably the better one. These guesses about whether a school is a Target, Reach, or Safety—they’re just guesses. They’re imprecise guesses that take up a lot of time and energy. I don’t think the time and energy are worth it.

What I do with my students isn’t radically different, at least on the surface. I still divide colleges into three categories, and the categories have to do with likelihood of acceptance. But I’ve let go of trying to draw lines for the three categories individually for every student. I use the same three “buckets” for everyone I work with. Trying to re-draw the lines for everyone is a waste of my time and a waste of the students’ time. I never look at scattergrams, and I never ask my students to look at them.

Here are the buckets I use.

Schools where you are highly confident you will be accepted. This is the category formerly known as Safety. For almost everyone I work with, I use a 50% admission rate or higher as the standard. I want everyone to apply to at least two colleges in this category. They are often, but not always, in-state public universities. These should be the first schools you choose. They are your top priority. Don’t make these a last-minute thought. Some of the unhappiest students I’ve known were the ones who didn’t put thought into their highly-confident schools and then were denied by everyone else. That’s a hard place to be, so take some time to find high-acceptance schools that are a good academic and cultural fit for you. Don’t daydream about other colleges until you’ve picked at least two from this bucket.

Here’s some good news: this bucket includes around 80% of colleges. Despite anything you’ve heard about how impossible it is to get into college, the vast majority of colleges accept more than half their applicants. It’s not a sacrifice to find schools that fit this category. You just have to decide to find these schools first, and then dedicate time and energy into finding them.

Schools where absolutely nobody should feel confident they’ll be accepted. Please hear this, and know I’m saying with the greatest amount of love and respect: if a college has an acceptance rate under 20%, you should assume you’re not going to be accepted. No matter how good a student you are, no matter how many impressive things you’ve done, no matter how strong a writer you are. These schools get so many applicants that they have to deny lots of strong, impressive students. Obviously some people do get accepted to these schools, and you very well could be one of them. But because the odds are so low, choose these schools last. Almost all of the ambitious and impressive students I’ve worked with think about these schools first. They’ve really internalized the idea of “Dream School,” and want to find the most perfect place for them. I understand that, but almost none of the most ambitious and impressive students I’ve worked with end up enrolling at one of these schools. (Even students who get accepted to one or more of these schools usually end up not enrolling at them.) Apply to as many of these schools as you want. Seriously, go for it! But don’t make them your highest priority.

Everything in between, with acceptance rates between 20% and 50%. After you’ve got your highly-confident schools picked out, this should be the next batch. And around half of your applications are going to be to these schools. It’s really the sweet spot. What I say to my clients about these schools is “I’d be pretty surprised if you got into all these colleges. But I’d also be pretty surprised if you got into none of them. What’s going to be fun is seeing which ones accept you, and I can’t predict that at all.” And I mean it: some of the happiest conversations I have with students in the spring is about their acceptances to these schools—and, usually, their choice of one of these schools to enroll. Because of all this, these schools should get most your time and attention. This is where most of the work is going to go, and where most of the payoff for that work is going to come from.

That’s it. Those are the three categories, the same for most of my students. Instead of Safety/Target/Reach, we have Probably/Maybe/Probably Not. And I tell everyone to use the overall acceptance rate—and ONLY the overall acceptance rate—to know which schools are in each category. We don't waste time trying to use other measurements, of either the school or the student, to try to figure out how to categorize colleges.

Are there exceptions? Are there students who should adjust the dividing lines for these buckets? Sure, absolutely. When I talk about “my students,” it’s not necessarily a representative group. As a teacher, I mostly dealt with students who were in multiple AP classes and had been identified as Gifted & Talented. As a private consultant, I work with families invested enough in this process that they’re willing to pay me to help them with it. So the lines I draw for the three “buckets'“ may not be the same for everyone.

If you haven’t taken many of the upper-level courses offered at your school, or if you’ve struggled with grades, or if external circumstances mean you missed a large portion of school or had a very rough patch of high school, you may want to bump the line for “schools where you are highly confident you will be accepted” up to 70% acceptance rates, or even 80% or 90%. That’s fine.

On the other end of things, I know plenty of counselors and consultants who use a 25% acceptance rate as their threshold for “schools where absolutely nobody should feel confident they’ll be accepted” instead of the 20% I use. That makes sense.

And occasionally I have students who skip the middle section altogether. After choosing one or two schools where they’re confident they’ll be accepted (usually because they have guaranteed acceptance somewhere), they spend all their time on a few more under-20% schools that really would be “dream schools” for them. They see no need to apply to a lot of colleges, and they focus on a small number of schools on each extreme. I love this approach, because it’s relatively low-stress, but it’s not a good approach for everyone.

Sometimes I have students with no interest in the super-selective schools and don’t apply to any of those. Again, this is fine.

But here’s the important part: whatever categories you realistically pick for yourself, you can do it once, quickly, and move on. It should be a general, 20 minute conversation. Decide a reasonable line for “highly confident,” with acceptance rates of at least 50%. Decide a reasonable line for “can’t be confident at all,” below somewhere in the 20% to 25% acceptance rate area. After that, use only the general acceptance rates for deciding which bucket a college belongs in, and make sure you’re keeping a reasonable, balanced list. Don’t spend 20 minutes or more on each individual school trying to guess how confident you are. That’s time that could go into writing a stronger essay, or being more active at school, or getting more time with your family, or getting more sleep. All of those other things are more important than scattergrams, I promise.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this post, here are three easy things you can do:

1. Share it on your social media feeds so your friends and colleagues can see it too.

2. Read these related posts:

   What are your chances of getting into your top college?

   Should you apply to all the Ivy League Schools?

   What’s the right number of colleges to apply to?

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Apply with Sanity doesn’t have ads or annoying pop-ups. It doesn’t share user data, sell user data, or even track personal data. It doesn’t do anything to “monetize” you. You’re nothing but a reader to me, and that means everything to me.

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