This week I got to give a 45-minute talk to the 11th graders in the International Baccalaureate program at my local neighborhood high school. I’ve talked to several classes there, and to the PTA, but never to a large group of students. Several of the teachers asked me to come, because their 11th graders are getting into full-on college application mode, and because the teachers have noticed a serious uptick in stress, competition among students, and “I heard that…” statements about college admissions that aren’t necessarily grounded in fact.
I prefaced my talk, as I do most talks with the usual disclaimer: each school is different, so there’s no rule or custom that works for all of them. What I’m about to say doesn’t relate perfectly to some of the super-wealthy and super-elite colleges like the Ivy League, nor does it relate perfectly to non-selective public or specialized schools. But it relates pretty well to a lot of the colleges out there, and to the ones where most of you are likely to go.
The talk was called Three Myths about College Admissions.
Myth #1: Admissions offices rank all the applicants, set a cut-off point, and then admit everyone above the cut-off. I’ve never heard anyone say this aloud, but almost every student I’ve ever spoken with believes it anyway. Parents, too. Whenever there’s holistic admissions, though, it doesn’t work this way.
First, the college admissions departments ask the basic questions: Can this student do the work here and graduate? Will this student fit in with our community and contribute to the community? Does this student have at least some of the things we’re looking for? For many schools, just answering yes to these questions get you in—around 80% of colleges admit more than half of their applicants. Some schools, however, will get a larger pool of applicants who fit the profile than what they can accept. How they narrow down that pool to the actual acceptances takes many factors into consideration, many completely out of your control. They’re looking for leaders, and also workers. They’re looking for proven superstars and also people with so-far unrealized accolades. They’re looking for low-income and first-generation students to fulfill their mission of social mobility, and also they’re also looking for people wealthy enough to keep them from going bankrupt. For Humanities majors and STEM majors. They need artists and musicians and athletes. Once your grades and accomplishments are good enough to get you into the initial pool, then quality matters more than quality. Having a 3.8 GPA because you are involved in other meaningful things is better than having a 4.2 GPA because you do nothing but work for good grades and have little non-academic experience. Being a true leader who contributes value to one team or club is better than being a non-descript member of five teams and clubs who is just trying to fill up an activity list. (Remember, most selective colleges ask for teacher recommendations. If you have a perfect GPA, but you got it by being an annoying grade grubber who is too competitive to be a team player, that can end up being a problem.) To the extent that you actually are competing with your classmates, you’re competing in terms of quality, not quantity.
Myth #2: Your numbers are your destiny. Once you understand the first myth, then the second myth is easily debunked. Just keep one thing in mind: a stat can be both true and useless at the same time.
Let’s stop and think of an example that has nothing to do with college or school. A number of studies have shown that women (or at least women who want to be in a relationship with a man) prefer men who are taller. (Here. Here. Here.) This stat seems to be true, but it is also useless. If a man is attracted to a woman who is as tall or taller than he is, should he immediately give up all hope and not bother? Absolutely not, because that particular woman may be one of the millions who don’t have such a preference. If I am 5’ 10”, can I safely assume that I am more attractive than any man shorter than 5’ 10”? Nope. That would be silly. The fact of a preference for taller men is true, statistically, overall but useless in any individual case.
I’ve been happily married for 19 years this week. I happen to be a few inches taller than my wife, but in those 19 years our relative heights has never come up. I give my height exactly zero weight as a factor in our happy marriage.
Keep this true-but-useless framework in mind when you begin looking at college profiles. You got an 1180 on the SAT, but the university’s SAT mid-range is 1250-1440. Does that mean you should give up hope and not even bother? No. Can someone with a 1490 safely assume that they are more “attractive” to colleges than everyone who got lower than 1440? That would be silly. Does a 3.98 GPA make you slightly more college-ready than your friend with a 3.68? Nope. While things like GPA and test scores may have meaning in the big picture overall, you should not make any personal assumptions based on them.
What’s more, your high school GPA and standardized test scores have zero meaning once you’re accepted to college. Many of the other things that you do daily—learning just for the sake of learning, taking risks that may or may not pay off, being someone who is good at being part of a larger group—can have meaning for the rest of your life. Going to your “dream” college doesn’t change that. Going to your “safety school” doesn’t change that.
Myth #3: You know what a college is going to cost you. Colleges post their official tuition and fees, often called the “sticker price.” The sticker price for college is very high! But remember that only around 15% of college students actually pay that price; the other 85% receive some amount of financial aid. So it’s unlikely, though not impossible, that your cost will be the published price. How much financial aid will you get? That depends on a lot of things. It depends on your financial situation, and the college’s financial situation. Some are better able to meet more of their students’ need than others. You won’t know what any school is actually going to cost you until you apply and are accepted. They have a finite pool of money to give, and how much you get depends on how much other people get. Remember the pool of applicants that could be accepted, and then the college has to narrow it down? Who makes it into the final accepted list and their total need may affect how much of your need can or cannot be met. But the bottom line is this, please hear this: NEVER decide to not apply to a school because you think you can’t afford it. You may not be able to in the end, but apply and make sure. You literally don’t know what it will cost until you apply and find out.
With that in mind, there are two numbers you should pay attention to just as much as you do sticker price:
The first is the average need met. Remember that your financial need is the difference between the sticker price of the school and your expected family contribution. So the more expensive the school, the higher your need. A few universities are able to meet all their students’ needs: they can give a financial aid package to cover all the difference between price and EFC for all students. But most universities aren’t able to meet all the need for all their students. You can look up how well, on average, they meet their students’ needs. Remember that the number is an average, and doesn’t guarantee how much of your individual need will be covered. But it gives you an idea of how likely the school is to give you a workable financial aid offer.
The second is the average indebtedness. Most colleges report how much student loan debt their graduates have upon graduation. Remember that loans are part of financial aid—you can have your need met by being offered student loans. So it’s helpful to see how much debt graduates have, on average.
Let’s look at two local examples: the University of Houston and Rice University. U of H in-state tuition is $11,276 per year. Their average need met is 62%, and the average indebtedness is $24,018. Rice’s tuition and fees are $49,112 per year, more than four times as expensive as University of Houston! However, Rice is able to meet 100% of need, and their average indebtedness is $26,556—only about $2,500 more than U of Houston. Rice accepts a lot fewer students, of course. Their acceptance rate is 16%, while Houston’s is 62%. But for a low-income or middle-class student who is able to get into Rice, it’s going to be as affordable as U of H, and probably more affordable. So a high-performing, lower-income student should not decide they’re not going to bother applying to Rice just because of the high sticker price. Sticker price only applies to around 15% who are much wealthier.
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